Since the end of November, the domestic polysilicon market began to experience as long as half a month of "price cooling", the market mentality has changed rapidly, the signing of the monthly order in December has been delayed, and the corresponding polysilicon price has also appeared "landslide".

As of December 14, the average price of polysilicon dense material is 265 yuan/kg, compared with the price of 306 yuan/kg on November 30, the decline reached 13.4%.

The reason for the decline of polysilicon price

On the one hand, the main reason for the current polysilicon price decline is the transformation of the overall supply and demand relationship in the market.

Driven by high profits, the new production capacity of polysilicon in 2022 is expanding rapidly. By the end of 2022, the new production capacity of domestic polysilicon is about 1.185 million tons, a 90% year-on-year increase compared with 2021. It is not difficult to see from the monthly supply and demand table of 2022 polysilicon, since August, the domestic supply and demand gap has been narrowing, and in November has basically reached a balance between supply and demand. According to the production arrangement of polysilicon enterprises in December, the supply of polysilicon will be in surplus for the first time this month. Since the beginning of this month, many polysilicon enterprises have also appeared the phenomenon of stockpiling. The relationship between supply and demand and the pressure of stockpiling have a negative impact on the market.

On the other hand, the price decline of polysilicon has been further accelerated by the cost squeeze caused by falling downstream silicon wafer prices and the "collapse" of market sentiment.

Take the current market mainstream 182mm silicon wafers as an example, as of December 14, the domestic 182 monocrystal silicon wafers mainstream transaction price of 6.03 yuan/piece, compared to November 30, 7.21 yuan/piece of the price fell, the decline reached 16.4%. Nearly half a month, the market is basically in the "silicon led polysilicon" state, leading to a sharp decline in the price of silicon is the main reason for the imbalance between supply and demand.

In November, with the completion of terminal stock and continued high cost, the operation of terminal power stations continued to turn cold, and a number of centralized projects in the north were suspended. Compared with silicon wafers, the production capacity of stacked cell wafers has been expanding slowly, leading to further aggravation of the excess situation in the silicon wafers market. Since mid-November, there has been a continuous accumulation of enterprises.

By the middle of this month, the inventory of some leading enterprises had reached 300 million pieces of silicon wafers. In order to reduce the inventory pressure, first-tier enterprises took the lead in cutting prices at the end of November, which caused market panic to a certain extent, and the market price immediately formed a "stampede". The sharp decline in the price of silicon wafer makes silicon wafer enterprises to control the cost of accounting, the expected price of polysilicon is constantly lowered, the market panic began to spread upward and downstream.

December polysilicon market price bottom line where

December polysilicon market price bottom line or will appear in the near future. At present, the polycrystalline silicon inventory of many crystal plants has been insufficient, and the downstream purchase demand is increasing. Some manufacturers said that they will sign orders within the next 5 to 7 days, otherwise the overall operation rate of the enterprise will be affected. Some industry insiders revealed to SMM: at present, there are already first-line polysilicon, silicon wafer enterprises signed orders, pricing at 260 yuan/kg, but the agreement is in the form of guaranteed price.

At the same time, according to the industry cost model to reverse the current silicon price, under the premise of ensuring profits, silicon wafer enterprises to obtain polysilicon price will be maintained at about 245 yuan/kg. Considering the cost gap between enterprises, it is expected that the bottom line of polysilicon dense material price in December or will be about 250 yuan/kg.

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